The University of Central Florida has released their 2007 hurricane forecast (PDF file). According to their research, the Houston area has a "Much Below Normal" chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds this year. Ditto for the extreme southern tip of Florida.
Actually, I think these long-range forecasts are worse than useless, they are dangerous. These forecasts cause complacency by giving people a false sense of security. ("Hey look Marge, we're in the Green Zone according to these scientists! Let's cancel that flood insurance. We don't need it this year.")
How they made their guesses.
One of NOAA's many animated models. Click the Animate Frames arrow to start. This model looks ahead two weeks, and is anything but fine-grained - it covers the entire northern hemisphere. So we're to believe that hurricane landfall percentages can now be accurately predicted on a county-by-county basis 3-4 months in advance?
Source: Lou Minatti
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